In 2022, the total sales volume of China's automobile market may end with 26.8 million vehicles, a year-on-year growth of 3%; In 2023, the sales volume is expected to reach 27.6 million vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 3%. This is the recent assessment of the car market in 2022 and the prediction of the car market trend in 2023 by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAC").

According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, as of November this year, the total sales of new cars in China had been 24.302 million, up 3.3% year on year. However, the growth of the car market in November was weak, not meeting expectations. In the fourth quarter of 2022, there is no obvious "tail raising" phenomenon as in the past two years, which seriously affects the trend of the car market in 2022. The car market in 2022 is likely to be less than expected, ending with 26.8 million cars, up 3% year on year. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars is expected to reach 23.5 million, up 9.4% year on year; The sales volume of commercial vehicles was about 3.3 million, down 35.3% year on year; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 6.7 million, with a year-on-year growth of 90.3%.

The main reasons why the car market in 2022 is not as expected are the downward pressure on the macro-economy, the poor employment situation that greatly affects consumption, the shortage of chip supply that disturbs the market, the decline in demand for commercial vehicles and the adverse factors brought about by "replenishment of inventory". At the same time, in 2022, the automobile market also encountered multiple unexpected "black swan" events, which made the already depressed automobile market weak and brought shock to the automobile market.

"Before the introduction of the automobile consumption stimulus policy, we had made various predictions about the automobile market in 2022. The pessimistic judgment is that there may be a decline of about 10% year on year, and the optimistic judgment is that it is basically the same as 2021." Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Association, said that the series of policies for promoting automobile consumption implemented in 2022 had played a positive role in promoting the automobile market. In order to ensure the smooth operation of the car market, the China Automobile Association specially proposes that the preferential policy for the purchase tax of fuel vehicles can be extended for two years, and will be levied at 5% in 2023; It will be collected at 7.5% in 2024.